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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However the current race is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still